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rr123  
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 04, 2016 6:56:06 AM(UTC)
rr123

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For those of you who followed us in and backed Real Madrid to win the Champions League in September, this game represents a chance to ensure a profit by siding with City in some shape or form.

magistaX black However, even for those without an interest ahead of kick-off, there look reasons to side with the visitors.

Real looked far from their best last week in the goalless draw at the Etihad, a game in which they were without talisman Cristiano Ronaldo.

With the Portuguese's fitness record an impressive one, they aren't used to playing without him - and it showed - while they also needed a late goal to win the La Liga at the weekend after struggling for much of the game.

He's due back - boss Zinedene Zidane is insisting his star man is 100 per cent fit - although that's a comment which you'd imagine must be sugar-coated, at least to some extent.

It was only two weeks ago that Ronaldo tweaked a hamstring and that has to be a worry for potential backers of the hosts. This is Real's biggest game of the season so far and there must be a chance he's been rushed back when in other circumstances he simply wouldn't have been risked.

It may be stating the obvious, but while far from a one-man team, last week showed Real are a much more fearsome opponent with him in their line-up than without.

Even if Ronaldo does play, as looks likely, Real will still be forced into two changes from their first-leg XI with both Karim Benzema (hamstring) and Casemiro (hip) having suffered injuries.

Like Ronaldo, Benzema is a key part of this side and his likely replacement Jese did little to impress in the second half of last week's game.

Of course, Real still have many good players in their squad and are more than capable of winning and reaching the final. They've won their five home games in this competition this season by an aggregate score of 18-0, while it's just one defeat in their last 29 in the Champions League at the Bernabeu.

However, the draw is very much part of this equation with City knowing that a scoring version of that result will see them progress on away goals.

ace 16+ sliver And it is in attack where City will fancy their chances. Sergio Aguero - who for years played across this city for Atletico - and Kevin de Bruyne are players out of the top drawer and Real's perfect defensive record at home in the Champions League this term is sure to come under threat.

Mercurial Victory V pink City did well to score twice in Paris in the last round, while they also put three past a Sevilla side on course to retain their Europa League title, did the same against Dynamo Kiev and notched twice in Monchengladbach back in the autumn.

Wolfsburg showed (albeit at home) that Real's defence can be got 'at', while Roma had their chances at the Bernabeu in the last 16 too. In short, Real's 18-0 home record masks some deficiencies at the back.

Some will argue the absence of the injured David Silva and, possibly, Yaya Toure will damage the visitors' chances but my view is it's been a while since we saw the best of either player and it would be no surprise to see both moved on in the summer.

Even were Toure to be declared fit, recent Manuel Pellegrini selections suggest he may be overlooked in favour of Fernando for an away game such as this.

While touching on the management, I'd also suggest it's advantage City on that score. While Zidane has done little wrong in the Real hot seat so far, we've yet to see how he'll respond to real adversity.

magista FG black OK, his men were in a hole against Wolfsburg but that was all sorted out with an early blast in the second leg.

Magista Obra white City, who have improved greatly in Europe over the course of this campaign, are unlikely to be dismissed so easily, especially with the reassuring presence of Vincent Kompany at the back, and were they to get in front, it will be interesting to see how Zidane changes things, particularly if he can't simply rely on Ronaldo to 'do his thing'.

Such is their record, my concerns about Real could be put aside to some extent were anything approaching a tempting price being offered but the fact is, it isn't.

At around 8/15 to win the game and 2/5 to qualify, I'm far from attracted to them. At the prices available, I'm instead tempted by City with a small bet on them reaching the final recommended at just shy of 2/1.

That man De Bruyne is also getting a slice of my betting bank put his way.

I've espoused his attributes on these pages before and the Belgian is a player I'm expecting to have a serious say on next season's campaign once Pep Guardiola arrives at the Etihad.

His current season has been disrupted by injury but he's been back several weeks now and in that period has netted three times in seven appearances, including goals in both legs against PSG.

Earlier in the campaign he also found the onion bag against Sevilla just when a goal was required.

He's a big-game player who drifts into awkward areas in front of the defence and can also surge late into the box.

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